Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, data from the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) indicates that a litre of imported petrol is about N64 cheaper than the one produced by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
However, the refinery has dismissed the claim, challenging fuel importers to attempt bringing in petroleum products despite the ongoing airstrikes in the Middle East.
Frontline Reporters reported on Monday that the Dangote refinery increased its gantry price from N774 to N874 per litre. The adjustment followed a rise in global oil prices to $84 per barrel, up from below $70, days before the airstrikes involving the United States, Iran, Israel and other countries.
Following the increase, filling stations on Tuesday raised pump prices to as high as N937 per litre, depending on location.
Before the Middle East crisis deepened over the weekend, some filling stations had already been selling petrol at prices ranging between N812 and N839 per litre. However, the crisis disrupted the global fuel market, affecting Nigeria and other countries.
Data released by MEMAN showed that Dangote’s petrol gantry price stood at N874 per litre as of Monday, while the landing cost of imported petrol was N809.37 per litre, creating a difference of about N64 between the two sources.
MEMAN also reported that Dangote’s diesel price stood at N1,169.42, while imported diesel cost N1,125.70 per litre.
Officials of the Dangote refinery, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, accused some importers of promoting a misleading narrative in order to ensure the Federal Government continues to issue import licences.
“Anybody can go to Apapa to get the landing cost, and anybody who likes should go to Iran and import. Some people just want us to depend on imports. Isn’t it time we ended that dependence on foreign products?
“Some people want importation to continue, and that’s not normal. You keep importing what can be produced locally. Is that a good thing? How do you expect our children to survive? Nigerians will import and destroy what we have locally,” one official said.
Another refinery official argued that Nigeria should appreciate the Dangote refinery for shielding the country from a fuel crisis that could have paralysed commercial activities.
“Let’s think about what could have happened to Nigeria if we didn’t have a refinery at this time. Assuming there is no Dangote refinery in Nigeria, economic activities would have been paralysed by now.
“Many countries are not so lucky and are already facing long queues at filling stations. Dangote has saved Nigeria from that fuel crisis. This has taught us that there’s nothing like one’s country, and we must always be prepared,” he said.
In its report, MEMAN explained that the downstream sector witnessed a major upward price adjustment on Monday after the Dangote refinery raised its gantry price by N100, bringing it to N874 per litre.
The shift, triggered by rising global crude prices, pushed retail pump prices above N900 per litre, while many private depots reportedly paused sales temporarily to review their pricing.
“The market is currently in a state of high uncertainty. With Brent crude climbing above $80 per barrel due to escalating geopolitical tensions, analysts warn that petrol costs remain under significant pressure.
“If crude prices continue toward the $90 per barrel mark, domestic pump prices could potentially reach N1,100 per litre by next month,” MEMAN said.
Meanwhile, motorists across Britain reportedly rushed to petrol stations amid fears of a fresh oil crisis triggered by the Iran conflict.
According to a report by The Mirror UK, frustrated drivers complained about petrol stations running out of fuel and long queues after hostilities erupted in the Middle East. Prices reportedly increased by as much as 11 pence per litre in some locations.
In contrast, Nigeria continues to rely significantly on the Dangote refinery for fuel supply amid the geopolitical tensions.
Although petrol prices surged on Tuesday, there were no reports of long queues at filling stations across the country.
Analysts attributed the relative stability to the refinery’s role in reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel.
“Imagine a Nigeria without a refinery; we would be experiencing endless queues, black market prices, businesses slowing down, and an economy held hostage by fuel scarcity.
“Today, we stand at a turning point. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals is more than steel and pipes — it is energy security, economic power, job creation, and national pride,” an industry player who spoke in confidence said.
During a recent meeting with refiners and stakeholders, the Dangote refinery assured Nigerians of sufficient fuel supply, although it acknowledged challenges arising from insufficient crude supply, which has forced it to rely partly on imported feedstock.
Frontline Reporters reports that the Dangote refinery supplied approximately 62 per cent of Nigeria’s petrol demand in January 2026, surpassing imports.
Figures contained in a fact sheet released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that the country recorded an average daily petrol supply of 64.9 million litres in January.
Of this volume, 40.1 million litres per day came from domestic refineries—largely driven by Dangote, currently the only refinery producing petrol—while 24.8 million litres per day were imported by oil marketing companies and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.
This marked the first time in the 13-month period from January 2025 to January 2026 that domestic production exceeded imports, reversing a trend where foreign supply had dominated the market.
The NMDPRA attributed the increase in domestic output to improved supply from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals, which raised its petrol supply from 32 million litres per day in December 2025 to 40.1 million litres per day in January 2026.
Crude supply concerns
Meanwhile, the Dangote refinery has accused local crude producers of refusing to supply feedstock to its facility, forcing it to rely more heavily on imported crude.
In a statement on Thursday, the refinery defended its N100 increase in the gantry price of petrol, while assuring Nigerians of its commitment to stabilising the market amid shocks in the international oil market.
The company said the Middle East conflict had forced some refineries worldwide to shut down or reduce production, creating a global scarcity of petroleum products. It added that China’s ban on gasoline and diesel exports had further tightened supply.
“The Dangote refinery will ensure that Nigeria is insulated from these supply shocks by prioritising supply to the domestic market. This is one of the many benefits of domestic refining,” the statement said.
According to the refinery, the conflict in the Middle East has pushed global crude and freight prices sharply higher, with Brent crude rising by about 26 per cent to above $84 per barrel.
In response, the refinery implemented a N100 per litre adjustment, representing about a 12 per cent increase in its ex-depot petrol price.
The company also disclosed that it currently receives only five crude cargoes per month from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited instead of the 13 cargoes required to meet its operational needs.
Consequently, it has had to source additional crude from international traders, often at a premium and using foreign exchange obtained at open market rates.
“Selling below cost would undermine our ability to procure crude, sustain production, and guarantee uninterrupted supply to Nigerians,” the refinery said.
Despite these challenges, it maintained that large-scale local refining continues to reduce Nigeria’s exposure to global supply disruptions, moderate foreign exchange demand and protect the country from severe shortages during periods of global instability.
The refinery also announced plans to deploy compressed natural gas-powered trucks to improve nationwide distribution, reduce logistics costs and enhance fuel delivery across the downstream sector.
Experts call for higher oil production
Meanwhile, experts have urged the Federal Government and industry operators to ramp up crude oil production to support domestic refineries.
Energy expert Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare said meeting Nigeria’s oil production targets would depend less on projections and more on practical measures.
He urged the government to strengthen security around oil assets, reduce operational disruptions, fast-track regulatory approvals and create a stable operating environment that enables existing oil fields to operate at full capacity.
According to him, Nigeria earned about N55 trillion from crude oil in 2025, up from roughly N50 trillion in 2024, although the figure still fell short of government expectations.
Iledare noted that the country planned to produce 766.5 million barrels in 2025 but managed to produce only about 599.6 million barrels, leaving approximately 167 million barrels unproduced.
Looking ahead to 2026, he stressed the need for stronger investment in maintenance operations, infill drilling and policy consistency to boost output.
He also urged the Independent Petroleum Producers Group to reopen shut-in wells to increase production in the short term.
Similarly, economics professor Segun Ajibola said crude production depends on several factors, including cooperation among joint-venture partners, developments in the global oil market and environmental conditions.
He added that Nigeria’s situation is particularly complex, noting that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has been embroiled in controversies in recent times.
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2026-03-05
