By Frontline Reporters
Uncertainty is deepening within Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) as cracks emerge in its preferred consensus strategy ahead of the 2027 general elections, with mounting indications that the party may resort to direct primaries in flashpoint states.
Multiple party sources revealed that while consensus remains the APC’s first-choice approach, growing rivalries, stalled negotiations and competing power blocs are threatening its viability in several states. Where agreements collapse, the party is now preparing to open the field through direct primaries to avert internal rebellion.
The shift is unfolding as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) deadline for submission of candidates draws closer, forcing the party to accelerate its internal processes.
Party insiders confirmed that APC National Chairman Nentawe Yilwatda has already presented the proposed timetable for primaries to President Bola Tinubu, with formal unveiling expected imminently.
Consensus under pressure
While the APC has successfully produced consensus governorship candidates in Lagos, Oyo and Ogun states, negotiations have stalled in several others—particularly where incumbent governors are completing their second terms.
States such as Nasarawa, Kwara, Adamawa, Yobe and Bauchi remain battlegrounds, with party leaders struggling to reconcile competing ambitions. In some of these states, presidential intervention is being quietly considered to break deadlocks.
A senior party source summed up the dilemma:
“Consensus cannot be forced. Where stakeholders refuse to align with a governor’s preferred candidate, direct primaries become inevitable.”
The APC’s internal balancing act is delicate. Governors are being given significant influence in choosing successors, but resistance from entrenched political actors has complicated that arrangement.
Another insider warned that imposing candidates could backfire:
“If people feel excluded, it could trigger defections or anti-party activities. Direct primaries may be the safer option in contentious states.”
Bauchi: uncertainty and quiet realignments
In Bauchi, political tension is rising amid persistent speculation over Governor Bala Mohammed’s possible defection. Though he has denied the rumours, uncertainty continues to shape political calculations across party lines.
Within the APC, divisions are already evident. Key figures such as Yusuf Tuggar, Ali Pate and Senator Shehu Buba are all linked to the 2027 governorship race.
Observers say early mobilisation is underway, with strategic moves aimed at consolidating grassroots support. At the same time, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is quietly gaining ground, attracting influential defectors and reshaping the political landscape.
Gombe: a model of managed succession
In contrast, the APC in Gombe appears to be charting a more orderly path. Governor Muhammadu Yahaya is said to be steering consultations toward a consensus candidate, with insiders expressing confidence that an agreement is within reach.
Several names have surfaced, including Transport Minister Saidu Ahmed Alkali and other prominent political figures, though formal declarations remain pending.
Yobe: calm on the surface, tensions beneath
In Yobe, the situation is more complex than it appears. While outward calm prevails, insiders describe intense behind-the-scenes manoeuvring as aspirants build alliances ahead of 2027.
Governor Mai Mala Buni’s succession plan is heavily influenced by former governor Ibrahim Gaidam, whose political weight remains decisive.
Potential contenders—including Ahmad Lawan and other high-profile figures—are believed to be quietly positioning, further complicating consensus efforts.
Nasarawa: zoning dispute fuels tension
In Nasarawa, consultations are ongoing, but zoning has emerged as a major fault line. Governor Abdullahi Sule is engaging stakeholders in a bid to build agreement, though his reported preference for Senator Aliyu Wadada has altered the political equation.
Former Inspector-General of Police Mohammed Adamu has openly backed direct primaries, arguing that they offer greater transparency and reduce manipulation.
“Consensus will not work if even one aspirant disagrees. Direct primaries remain the most credible option,” he said.
Adamawa and Kwara: resistance to imposition
In Adamawa, alleged attempts to impose a candidate have sparked resistance and raised fears of a major crisis. Political actors warn that forcing consensus could destabilise the party structure.
Similarly, in Kwara, multiple power blocs and entrenched interests have made consensus increasingly unrealistic. Aspirants with strong backing are unwilling to step down, creating a high-stakes contest ahead of the primaries.
Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq has publicly distanced himself from succession imposition, insisting that any candidate must emerge through a credible process.
Borno: open race looms
In Borno, the race remains largely undeclared but highly competitive. Governor Babagana Zulum is said to be reluctant to impose a successor, leaving the field open to influential figures, including allies of Vice President Kashim Shettima.
Analysts say the sheer number of power brokers makes consensus unlikely, pointing instead to a fiercely contested primary.
A party at a crossroads
Across the country, the APC faces a defining choice: enforce consensus at the risk of internal fractures or embrace direct primaries and open competition.
While consensus offers unity and cost efficiency, critics argue it risks alienating key stakeholders. Direct primaries, on the other hand, may provide legitimacy—but could expose deep divisions.
As one party insider put it:
“This is a balancing act. The party must choose between control and credibility—and the outcome will shape its chances in 2027.”
With timelines tightening and ambitions rising, the APC’s internal contest is already shaping up as a decisive prelude to Nigeria’s next general election.
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