By Frontline Reporters
The Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NiHSA) has warned that the devastating flooding witnessed recently in Lagos and several other parts of the country is only the beginning, cautioning that heavier rainfall and more severe flooding could persist over the next 12 weeks if urgent preventive measures are not taken.
Director-General and Chief Executive Officer of NiHSA, Umar Mohammed, said the agency accurately predicted the floods well before they occurred but lamented that its forecasts and early warnings were largely ignored.
Speaking to Frontline Reporters through the agency’s Head of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing, Emmanuel David Tuna, Mohammed said the flooding currently affecting Lagos was consistent with NiHSA’s projections.
“This is something we foresaw. We saw it coming,” he said.
He warned that the country is only at the early stages of the rainy season and that flooding could intensify considerably between July and September, with the peak expected in August and September.
“As we speak now, with the flooding happening, if nothing is done, this is just the start of the rainy season, sometime around July to September, and it could be worse than what is even happening right now. We are expecting it to be worse around August and September, particularly August-September,” Mohammed said.
Lagos’ unique flood challenge
According to the NiHSA boss, Lagos remains one of Nigeria’s most vulnerable states because it is exposed to three different types of flooding—urban, riverine and coastal (tidal) flooding—which can occur simultaneously.
He explained that the state’s coastal location, extensive urban development and low-lying terrain combine to make it particularly susceptible whenever heavy rainfall coincides with rising river levels and tidal activity.
Mohammed disclosed that field assessments carried out by the agency revealed that several flood-prone areas are at or even below sea level, making natural drainage extremely difficult.
He added that many drainage channels inspected after the last rainy season were already filled with stagnant water, silt, plastic waste and other debris long before this year’s heavy rains began.
According to him, blocked and poorly maintained drainage systems have significantly reduced the city’s ability to discharge storm water, resulting in prolonged flooding whenever heavy rains occur.
Ogun River worsening flooding
Mohammed also attributed the severity of the flooding to the overflow of tributaries connected to the Ogun River.
He explained that urban flooding had already overwhelmed drainage channels before rising river levels compounded the situation by pushing additional water into already inundated communities.
“So, now there is urban flooding at stake, currently happening, and riverine flooding combining with it,” he said, warning that the situation could have been even worse if high ocean tides had coincided with the heavy rainfall.
Flooding may persist for months
The NiHSA chief warned that saturated ground conditions could prolong flooding across Lagos and other vulnerable areas, with some communities likely to remain inundated for days or even weeks after rainfall.
“The ground is already saturated. Lagos is flooding, and it is extending this long because it has nowhere to go,” he said.
He added that if subsequent rainfall arrives before existing floodwaters recede, many areas could experience repeated flooding throughout the peak rainy season.
According to him, the flooding is expected to occur intermittently between July and September before gradually subsiding in October.
“We are expecting this flood to be on and off, and to span from July to September. Around October, we expect the rains to begin receding, although flooding may still occur at lower intensity. The safest period is likely to be around November,” he said.
Drinking water at risk
Beyond flooding, Mohammed expressed concern about the possible contamination of drinking water sources, saying NiHSA had already begun monitoring groundwater quality before the floods.
He said the agency collected baseline data from boreholes and other water sources to enable post-flood assessments aimed at determining the extent and source of contamination.
“We were concerned about the quality of drinking water because we expected the flooding to last for an extended period,” he said, adding that another team would soon be deployed to conduct post-flood water quality assessments.
States ignored warnings
Mohammed lamented what he described as poor cooperation from state governments despite repeated flood outlooks and advisory notices issued by NiHSA.
According to him, many state authorities fail to act on the agency’s annual flood predictions because the warnings are issued before visible signs of flooding emerge.
“We have a serious challenge with cooperation from states. Most times, when we come before the floods begin, there is no visible danger, so our warnings are disregarded and not taken seriously,” he said.
Lagos reels from devastating rainfall
The warning comes days after torrential rainfall lasting more than 12 hours submerged major roads and communities across Lagos, crippling commercial activities and leaving thousands of commuters stranded.
Among the worst-hit areas were the Lagos-Oshodi Expressway, Abeokuta Expressway, Lekki-Epe Expressway, Victoria Island, Ikeja, Agege, Oworonsoki, Gbagada, Funsho Williams Avenue, Iwaya, Yaba and several coastal communities.
Many residents used social media to post distress messages and videos showing submerged homes, stranded motorists and impassable roads, while parents kept children away from school over safety concerns.
NiHSA has urged governments at all levels and residents to take flood warnings seriously, clear blocked drainage channels and strengthen preparedness measures as the peak of the rainy season approaches.
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