By Frontline Reporters
Nigeria’s petrol import bill plunged by N6.07tn in the first nine months of 2025, a sharp reversal driven largely by expanding domestic refining capacity, according to an analysis of National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) trade data.
The country spent N5.42tn on petrol imports between January and September 2025—down from N11.50tn within the same period in 2024. This 52.82% drop marks one of the steepest year-on-year declines in recent history and reflects Nigeria’s accelerating shift from offshore supply to homegrown production.
Quarterly figures show the downward trend has been consistent. Spending on PMS fell from N3.81tn in Q1 2024 to N1.76tn in Q1 2025. In Q2, imports slid from N4.36tn to N2.38tn, while Q3—showing the sharpest drop—fell from N3.32tn to N1.29tn.
The NBS did not directly attribute the decline to a single factor, but analysts point to the rise of local refining, particularly the growing output from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which began diesel and aviation fuel production earlier in the year and added petrol in September.
The refinery has already reshaped competition in the downstream market, contributing to fluctuating pump prices and easing pressure on foreign exchange demand. Though it faced early FX-related challenges that briefly halted naira-denominated fuel sales in March, government intervention restored operations and sustained supply.
Dangote Group President Aliko Dangote recently hinted at a major overhaul of the downstream sector, describing it as an impending “shakedown” that goes beyond price cuts and aims at transforming Nigeria’s fuel supply chain. He also reaffirmed plans to list the refinery group on the stock exchange and disclosed ongoing expansion efforts that could push refining capacity from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million bpd.
International analysts, including S&P Global, note that the refinery has already positioned Nigeria as a net exporter of diesel and jet fuel while substantially reducing petrol imports.
Dangote maintains that the refinery is central to Nigeria’s economic reset, saying the country has entered a new era where fuel scarcity and long queues will no longer define national life.
ADVERTISEMENTS
