The simmering build-up to the 2027 general elections is rapidly giving way to a high-stakes succession season in at least 10 states, as governors in their final terms prepare to exit office and a new generation of political actors moves to take their place.
Governors Babajide Sanwo-Olu (Lagos), Dapo Abiodun (Ogun), Seyi Makinde (Oyo), Bala Mohammed (Bauchi), Mai Mala Buni (Yobe), Babagana Zulum (Borno), Ahmadu Fintiri (Adamawa), Inuwa Yahaya (Gombe), Abdullahi Sule (Nasarawa), and AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq (Kwara) are in the final lap of their constitutionally permitted two-term tenures, and the race to succeed them has begun across the states.
From the South-West to the North-East, what is emerging is far from a routine political transition. Instead, analysts say the contest is shaping into a complex web of ambition, rivalry, and shifting alliances, with dozens of aspirants already positioning themselves across party lines.
In states like Oyo, Nasarawa, Lagos and Bauchi, the early contours of these contests reveal familiar but intensifying dynamics — zoning disputes, internal party fractures, defections, and the powerful influence of incumbents. Behind the scenes, consultations have deepened, alliances are quietly forming, and the real battles — often within dominant political parties — are already underway long before voters are called to the polls.
The emerging picture across the states is one of crowded political fields, fragile party cohesion, and strategic calculations driven by zoning arrangements, religious balance and incumbency advantage.
The Independent National Electoral Commission has fixed January 16, 2027 for the presidential and National Assembly elections, while governorship elections will follow two weeks later on February 6, 2027.
Expectedly, some governors whose tenures will end on May 29, 2027 are already being linked with potential senatorial ambitions, which could further reshape the political calculations within their respective states.
Except in Oyo and Bauchi, where the ruling Peoples Democratic Party is grappling with internal crises, most of the states involved are currently under the control of the All Progressives Congress.
In Lagos State, early political permutations suggest that the decisive battle may occur not between parties but within the ruling APC itself.
Since 1999, the state has remained firmly within the political orbit of President Bola Tinubu, with successive governors emerging from parties aligned with him — the Alliance for Democracy, Action Congress, Action Congress of Nigeria, and now the APC.
As Governor Sanwo-Olu prepares to complete his second term, the race to replace him is gathering momentum, although many consultations are still being held behind closed doors.
A few aspirants have already indicated interest. Among them are Jide Adediran, popularly known as Jandor, and Samuel Ajose (SMA), both of whom have declared their intention to contest on the platform of the APC.
Adediran, who contested the 2023 election under the PDP before defecting to the APC, is pushing the “Lagos for Lagos” political message, while Ajose has been campaigning under the slogan “Lagos for All,” drawing strong support from the Badagry axis.
Within opposition parties, Labour Party’s 2023 governorship candidate, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, has reportedly joined the African Democratic Congress and is also preparing for another run.
Other opposition figures mentioned include Funso Doherty and entrepreneur Laja Adeoye under the PDP.
However, political analysts believe the opposition still faces an uphill task in a state where the APC has dominated the political landscape for more than two decades.
Within the ruling party, several influential figures are also believed to be quietly consulting ahead of the primaries.
These include former governor Akinwunmi Ambode, Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly Mudasiru Obasa, Minister of Education Dr Tunji Alausa, Chief of Staff to the President Femi Gbajabiamila, Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat, and the Governor’s Chief of Staff Tayo Ayinde.
Also frequently mentioned in political circles are the President’s Principal Secretary, Hakeem Muri-Okunola, and Lagos East Senator Tokunbo Abiru.
Observers say Lagos has historically favoured technocrats with strong administrative credentials rather than career politicians, a pattern that could influence the eventual choice of candidate.
Ultimately, many insiders believe that President Tinubu’s influence will remain the single most decisive factor in determining who emerges as the APC’s governorship candidate in the state
In Oyo State, the succession race is quickly evolving into one of the most competitive political contests in recent years.
Governor Makinde, who is completing his second term, leaves behind a political environment where several aspirants within the ruling PDP are already mobilising support across the state.
Among the names being mentioned are the Chairman of the State Universal Basic Education Board, Dr Nureni Adeniran; Speaker of the House of Assembly Adebo Ogundoyin; the governor’s Chief of Staff, Segun Ogunwuyi; agribusiness adviser Dr Debo Akande; and former Finance Commissioner Bimbo Adekanmbi.
Former Deputy Governor Taofeek Arapaja and federal lawmaker Adedeji Olajide are also widely considered strong contenders.
Within the opposition APC, several influential politicians have also signalled interest in the governorship race.
These include Minister of Power Adebayo Adelabu, former governorship candidate Teslim Folarin, Senator Sharafadeen Ali, Senator Abdulfatai Buhari, and House of Representatives member Remi Oseni.
Other notable aspirants being discussed include former Deputy Governor Rauf Olaniyan, Akeem Agbaje, Adebayo Shittu, Azeez Adeduntan, and Gbenga Adegbola.
Observers say zoning, religion, and regional balance — particularly among the Ibadan, Oke Ogun, Ogbomoso and Ibarapa blocs — could significantly shape the final outcome of the race.
In Nasarawa State, the governorship race is already attracting a remarkably large field of aspirants across several political parties.
Investigations by Frontline Reporters indicate that more than 30 political figures are already positioning themselves for the contest, spanning the APC, PDP, SDP, ADC, NNPP, Labour Party and Action Alliance.
The aspirants include political heavyweights, technocrats and businessmen from the state’s three senatorial districts.
The recent defection of PDP’s two-time governorship candidate David Ombugadu to the APC has further intensified political calculations ahead of the primaries.
Governor Abdullahi Sule has, however, maintained that he has not endorsed any candidate, insisting that the state’s zoning arrangement should be respected for fairness and political stability.
A disagreement has reportedly emerged between the governor and former governor Tanko Al-Makura over whether zoning should continue or the contest should be thrown open.
Across Other States
Similar succession battles are unfolding in Bauchi, Ogun, Yobe, Kwara, Gombe, Adamawa and Borno states.
In Bauchi, speculation about a possible political defection by Governor Bala Mohammed and the growing number of aspirants within the APC have heightened political tensions.
Ogun politics is being shaped by agitation from the Ogun West senatorial district, which has never produced a governor since the state’s creation.
In Yobe and Gombe, the ruling APC remains dominant, but zoning debates and internal party calculations are already influencing the emerging political alignments.
Meanwhile, in Kwara, the race is expected to be shaped by strong internal competition within the APC, renewed mobilisation by the PDP under former Senate President Bukola Saraki, and the emergence of smaller parties seeking to break the dominance of the two major blocs.
Political analysts believe that as consultations intensify and alliances continue to shift, the coming months will further redefine the political landscape ahead of what promises to be one of the most competitive governorship election cycles in recent years.
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