The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the world will need new oil and gas projects to maintain current production levels, even as it projects demand peaking before the end of the decade.
In its latest report released Tuesday, the Paris-based agency said its analysis of 15,000 oil and gas fields revealed that production is declining faster than expected, raising concerns over global energy security and market stability.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol noted that shifting trends in offshore drilling and fracking were partly responsible for the steeper decline.
“Careful attention needs to be paid to the potential consequences for market balances, energy security, and emissions,” Birol said.
A Clash Over the Future of Oil
The forecast has reignited tensions between the IEA and the global oil industry, which accuses the agency of discouraging much-needed investments. It has also deepened the agency’s ongoing feud with the Trump administration, with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright threatening in July to withdraw Washington from the IEA unless it reforms its outlook methods.
The IEA has consistently maintained that oil demand will peak before 2030, a projection with significant implications for countries and companies banking on long-term oil expansion.
The Investment Gap
While upstream oil and gas investment in 2025 is expected to hit around $570 billion, the agency warned that even this level of spending would only bring about a modest rise in production.
The report concluded that to simply hold global output steady, new resources must be developed — a gap that cannot be closed with already approved projects alone.
However, the IEA stressed that the scale of new investments could be tempered if governments and industries successfully reduce demand in line with carbon neutrality pledges.
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2025-09-16